Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
